Insights Weekly Research Briefing
Believe it or not, the back half of 2025 is rapidly approaching. While we choose our line to get the portfolio ready for the last six months, the news stream continues to flood the zone with information both important and meaningless. While the motherboards in the servers with the trading algorithms are near meltdown, as long term investors, we can take a slower and more observatory approach. So what are the markets telling us right now?
Where we are now is that stocks continue to recover and point to better days ahead. The equity market recovery has provided a new window for tapping the risk markets either via an IPO, secondary or selling debt. And given the reception to the deals, investors want to put money to work.
The inexpensive foot coverings are great for summer strolling and poolside patio navigating, but they are not ideal for path hiking or street running. Equally put, White House tariff flip flopping could be good for some short-term traders, but the lack of certainty is not helpful for long term investors or managers of any sized business.
While the kids get in the water, U.S. stocks emerged from their 2025 dunking as the S&P 500 moved into positive territory last week. Global stocks bounced 4-5% as the world lowered their recession forecasts and raised their earnings estimates and price targets post a White House retreat on China tariffs.
While Washington was distracted this weekend by a used Boeing 747, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took over the U.S. economic control room and lowered all China tariffs back to a 10% + 20% level.
Time to find out if the American people really believe in shared sacrifice. It's one thing for your simple Christmas tree to have fewer dolls or toys underneath it this December.
Investors are hoping that the stormy April markets will also lead to some blossoming in their May portfolios. US investors in European equities have seen many of their assets bounce back to highs, especially in German stocks and among the European financial companies.
Not much winning right now. The S&P 500 is -13% YTD, US small-caps -18%, and the Magnificent Seven -25%. Even long US Treasury bonds are negative YTD while the US dollar index is -9%. International stocks and Gold is where the green is this year. It didn't have to be this way.
The rules of the current game are a bit different from the one that your grandmother taught you. In this global trade game of checkers, one of your men will be removed from the board for each of the following violations
When I saw Madagascar was placed on the White House tariff list with a 47% tax rate, I thought it was a mistake. Little did I know, the whole tariff list creation was seemingly a joke, but one which is still being implemented this week.
The auto tariffs are locked and loaded this week. A 25% rate on $400 billion in annual U.S. sales of cars and parts not made in the U.S. This will raise $100 billion in tax revenue which will be paid for by U.S. consumers and the manufacturers.
If you are driving while on spring break this week and reach a "T" in the road, you have to make a decision. No idling at the intersection.