Insights Weekly Research Briefing
Not much winning right now. The S&P 500 is -13% YTD, US small-caps -18%, and the Magnificent Seven -25%. Even long US Treasury bonds are negative YTD while the US dollar index is -9%. International stocks and Gold is where the green is this year. It didn't have to be this way.
The rules of the current game are a bit different from the one that your grandmother taught you. In this global trade game of checkers, one of your men will be removed from the board for each of the following violations
When I saw Madagascar was placed on the White House tariff list with a 47% tax rate, I thought it was a mistake. Little did I know, the whole tariff list creation was seemingly a joke, but one which is still being implemented this week.
The auto tariffs are locked and loaded this week. A 25% rate on $400 billion in annual U.S. sales of cars and parts not made in the U.S. This will raise $100 billion in tax revenue which will be paid for by U.S. consumers and the manufacturers.
If you are driving while on spring break this week and reach a "T" in the road, you have to make a decision. No idling at the intersection.
Segments of the U.S. stock market have been screaming at us for weeks that the U.S. economy is going to slow down.
One door shuts and another opens. While the door to the U.S. is closing to investors and exporters, die tür in Germany blew off its hinges last week.
It's go time. Big time tariffs drop on Tuesday hitting Canada and Mexico at 25% and a surprise new tap on China to bring them to 20%.
As thoughts of stagflation return to the financial markets, it is time to do a gut check and study what you love the most in your portfolio and what you might want to hedge or realize gains in.
The tariff threats continue. This weekend they were pointed to steel and aluminum as well as anyone who taxes U.S. imports. Higher prices on steel will hit the energy and construction industries. Tariffs on aluminum will hurt U.S. auto manufacturers and the beverage industry. But great news for aluminum can recyclers and scrap metal junkyards.
Are President Trump's guardrails still in place? Or have the global trade wars begun? Will the tariff threats and resulting economic volatility have a long lasting impact to the financial markets? Will anti-U.S. trade alliances be formed? Will foreign debt buyers show up at the next U.S. Treasury bond auction? Should I cancel my weekends for the next four years?