Just when you thought all 'meme' stocks were headed to the pennies. Surprise! The July rebound from an oversold June shifted into a higher gear last week when the reddit/meme/unprofitable tech stock crowd came in from the beach with fists full of BUY tickets.
As bad as June's financial markets were for investors, July was the opposite. With worries over inflation, Fed policy, corporate earnings and a recessionary slide dialed up to the maximum, all it took was a bit of improvement from the worst expectations to move the markets higher.
Peak earnings. Peak prices. Peak interest rates. Peak summer temperatures. Peak Elon? The market continues to digest the paddle balls of earnings releases flying over the net.
No rose-colored glasses this week for either the triple digit heat or the double-digit Fed Funds rate hike. I just can't see the FOMC raising by 100 basis points and then running off for vacation for two months.
Major recession or mild slowdown? If we only knew the answer, the path would be so much easier. As Jon Hilsenrath notes below, if this is a recession, it will be one of the most unique that the U.S. has ever encountered. Friday's jobs data continued to suggest a healthy economy, not a deteriorating one.
Well after losing ground in 10 of its 11 last weeks, the S&P 500 showed some life with a strong positive move last week.
A ship in port will not catch fish, but it also won't sink during stormy seas. You have probably noticed that the recent market movements have been among the most violent ever recorded. The last two weeks have seen some epic swells that even broadsided the leading groups, like the Energy sector. This is what bear markets do. They roll through and hit everything.
May's CPI was a big surprise. This is not a market that wants surprises. The trust in the Fed and Captain Powell to land Air America took a big hit on Friday. Dreams of a September pause in rate hikes have now been replaced by five 50 basis point rate increases for each meeting left in 2022.
After firing up the financial markets two weeks ago at the J.P. Morgan analyst meeting, our favorite tennis playing NYC weatherman Jamie "Stormy" Dimon talked about hurricanes at the Bernstein conference. The markets were less than amused and caught playing deep off the baseline given the breakout in energy prices and the increasing hawkish comments out of FOMC members.
I grew up with either a bb or pellet gun in my hands and learned to enjoy shooting real guns as I got older. But in no society would I believe that mentally troubled teenagers or adults should have access to any deadly weapons. There are solutions in our modern information driven world to permit weapons into the hands of rightful people.
This month millions of kids will graduate from college and high school. For all of them, it was a diploma well-earned due to the pandemic interruption for more than half of their education.
As investors continue in their risk avoidance, assets seem to be for sale almost everywhere. Sure a bounce like the one on Friday will make everyone feel good for a day, but as soon as the joy is gone, we return to earnings misses met with collapsed stock prices, lowered price targets caused by multiple compression on stocks that beat earnings, and continued lowering of global GDP targets because of China/Ukraine/Russia/Inflation/Interest Rates/Growth pulled forward during COVID/etc.
With massive volatility continuing across all financial market assets and significant selling volumes outpacing significant buying ones, now is a time for equity investors to play defense.
I didn't plan on writing a WRB this weekend due to some travel and family obligations but given the market's move last week, I felt it was important to convey some thoughts.
For two months, bond investors have felt nothing but pain as interest rates have surged higher. But last week, it was equity investors who entered the theater of pain as worries about global growth took center stage.
With earnings season now upon us, last week's early reports have given us a small read into what the rest of the corporate reports might have in store. The biggest banks remain a bit cautious with inflation, interest rate and global macro uncertainties, while also seeing solid loan growth, current credit trends and healthy customer balance sheets.
This is a most busy week of data for the markets. CPI and PPI for inflation. March Retail Sales and Industrial Production. UofM Consumer Sentiment. The kick-off to first quarter corporate earnings.
Now, that was a first quarter for the record books. War. Inflation. First fed funds increase. Final act of U.S. COVID. Seven million JOLTS. Inverting yield curves.