Private Wealth

Weekly Research Briefing: Copycat

April 26, 2022
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For two months, bond investors have felt nothing but pain as interest rates have surged higher. But last week, it was equity investors who entered the theater of pain as worries about global growth took center stage. Better than expected Q1 earnings results should have helped the markets higher last week, but instead China's expanding COVID lockdowns and their growing impact to the world economy sent stock investors fleeing. And it wasn't just the old growth and cyclical stocks hit again, but this time the market re-evaluated its commodity and materials exposures. Not only did the globe's primary economic commodity, crude oil, get hit, but so did the miners of precious metals, industrial metals, EV battery metals, uranium, fertilizers, etc. In other words, the commodity trade has hit a speed bump.

So now both stock and bond investors look to be on guard. Maybe this is a good thing. Could the financial markets be lining up to help do the Fed's work for it like it did in 1994? Back then, Greenspan's first rate hike was a total surprise that caught banks and levered hedge funds off guard. The FOMC then proceeded to raise rates from 3% to 6% over the next year. How does our current situation look? Starting last year, we knew that the Fed was going to take rates higher. And now in April, we are expecting the Fed to take rates MUCH higher, maybe even +300 basis points like the 1994 FOMC did. So, if the recent stock and bond market declines cool U.S. growth and inflation combined with the Fed on track for a 3% move, maybe the market has baked it all in and current market interest rates have peaked? It is worth a thought.

As we have written before, the rise in rates over the last year has forced equity investors in both the public and private markets to get their companies in shape for tougher times. Years of free money are no longer and companies with distant profitability targets are needing to find ways to make money sooner. As investors become more skeptical, return targets on their money will carry a higher return. And after seeing the -35% decline that was Netflix last week, no one wants to own a stock that is in for a world of change in a highly competitive industry. The bar is being raised by equity owners which is why stocks remain on edge. The S&P 500 is back into correction territory (-10%) while Small Caps and the Nasdaq are again flirting with bear markets (-20%). It is tough to know where equity prices will find their support zone right now after Thursday and Friday's broad, massive selling sprees. To improve the environment, an improved situation out of the China lockdowns would be necessary. Then any better inflation news would help. Also, an end to the war in Ukraine so that Europe could move forward. But maybe just lower prices on stocks will bring buyers back into a more positive mood. This is not an easy time. Use caution.


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Something interesting happened last week...

With all the Fed talk and jockeying for positioning around the May FOMC meeting, bond yields didn't move higher.

US job vacancies rate

@hmeisler


Instead, the fears of the Fed, inflation and China were completely absorbed by the equity markets...

Led by the Nasdaq which is now working on its largest monthly decline since 2008 and now back to tight roping a bear market decline.

US job vacancies rate

The Daily Shot


Has the decline in bonds been enough, and the decline in stocks not enough?

Market pricing for the number of 25 bps Fed rate hikes

@bespokeinvest


BofA thinks that bonds have overshot to the downside...

April 20 (Reuters) - BofA Securities on Wednesday recommended investors establish long positions on U.S. 10-year Treasuries, citing expectations that easing inflation will allow rates to ease from here.

U.S. 10-year yields have neared 3% this week, up from around 1.50% at the start of the year as inflation surges, prompting a hawkish turn from the U.S. Federal Reserve and a repricing of rate hike expectations.

"While CPI inflation is 8.5%, we believe the market may be overemphasizing inflation risks," BofA's analysts said in a report published on Wednesday.

"Our forecasts point to inflation peaking this quarter and falling steadily into 2023. We believe this will reduce the panic level around inflation and allow rates to decline."

Reuters


Morgan Stanley thinks that stocks may have room to the downside...

Unfortunately, we now find ourselves at a bit of a loss for new ideas. In short, the market has been so picked over at this point, it's not clear where the next rotation lies. In our experience, when that happens, it usually means the overall index is about to fall sharply with almost all stocks falling in unison. In many ways this is what we have been waiting for as our Fire and Ice narrative concludes—a fast tightening Fed right into the teeth of a slowdown. While our defensive posture since November has worked well, we can't argue for absolute upside anymore for these groups given the major re-rating they have experienced in both absolute and relative terms, another sign that investors know what's coming and are bracing for it the best they can by hiding in such stocks.

In our opinion, the accelerative price action on Thursday and Friday may also support the view we are now moving to this much broader sell-off phase. We think Friday, in particular, appears indicative of what to expect next—lower beta/defensive stocks outperform but they still go down. Another important signal from the market lately is how poorly Materials and Energy stocks have traded, particularly the former. Some of the reversals in the base metals stocks have been eye popping, with most securing outsized reversal patterns on a weekly basis. To us, this signifies the market's realization that we are now entering the Ice phase, and that growth will be the primary concern for stocks from here rather than inflation, the Fed and interest rates.

On that note more specifically, we believe inflation and inflation expectations have likely peaked, and while others have been using this as a bullish argument, we would like to send a clear warning—be careful what you wish for. There's no doubt that a fall in inflation should take pressure off the back end of the rate curve, which arguably could relieve pressure on valuations for some stocks. The problem is that falling inflation comes with lower nominal GDP growth and therefore sales and EPS growth, too. For many companies it could be particularly painful if those declines in inflation are swift and sharp. The move in some of the aforementioned Materials stocks suggest that's exactly what could be in store for commodity prices. In other words, the Energy and Materials names could be in for a period of underperformance after being one of the big winners of 2022.

Morgan Stanley


Here are the financial markets moving to do the Fed's work...

Higher interest rates and lower stock prices are doing most of the tightening. It is a good sign that widening credit spreads are not impacting.
Wide distribution of outcomes after historical yield curve inversions

Wide distribution of outcomes after historical yield curve inversions

Morgan Stanley


Fascinating chart. If bond yields peaked today, could they also predict a quick end to Fed tightening?

@mark_ungewitter: $TYX has anticipated the end of Fed tightening cycles by 1-6 months, suggesting the potential for bond-market reversal, even if policy is tightened at each of the next four FOMC meetings.

Wide distribution of outcomes after historical yield curve inversions

Also interesting is this chart of the 2/10s narrowing so much more than the 3m/5y spreads in 1994 just like today...

In 1994, Fed Chair Greenspan surprised the market with a February rate hike and more aggressive tone that caused a sharp reaction in market-driven rates. Currently, the market has already discounted a 2.5% Fed Funds rate via at least one 50-basis point hike, while the Fed has only raised rates once by 25 basis-points. The rate hike cycle in 1994 was the only other time the spread between the 2/10-year and 3-month/5-year U.S. Treasury Yield curves was so negative because the market initially moved so much faster than Fed policy (Figure 2). (Cannacord Genuity)

Wide distribution of outcomes after historical yield curve inversions

Last week was the end to Fed speak before the May FOMC meeting. And there was plenty to chew on...

"I think I'm in the same areas as my colleagues philosophically. I think it's really important that we get to neutral and do that in an expeditious way. I really have us looking at one and three-quarters by the end of the year, but it could be slower depending on how the economy evolves and we do see greater weakening than I'm seeing in my baseline model. This is one reason why I'm reluctant to really declare that we want to go a long way beyond our neutral place, because that may be more hikes than are warranted given sort of the economic environment. We do need to get away from zero, I think zero is lower than we should be right now. But at the same time, we need to just pay attention.... My goal is to have there not be a recession while I sit in this chair, and I'm just going to do all I can to make that be true" - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

"I like to think of it as expeditiously marching towards neutral. It's clear the economy doesn't need the accommodation we're providing. And so in order not to tip the economy over by reacting abruptly, we need to take a measured pace. But that measured pace still gets us up to the neutral rate, which I put at about 2.5% by the end of the year -- really to assure the American people that we're going to get inflation back down, we're going to aim for our target. That is something that, in my judgment, gets to neutral by the end of the year to get on a good path for that. Then, the tactics about: is it 50, is it 25, is it 75? Those are things that I’ll deliberate with my colleagues." - San Francisco President Mary Daly

"...at our last meeting, and this was in the minutes from the meeting, many, many on the committee, thought it would be appropriate for there to be one or more 50 basis point hikes. I don't disclose my own path. I try to leave the committee. But I think markets are processing what we're saying. They're reacting appropriately generally, but I wouldn't want to bless any particular market pricing. The thing I want to say though is we really are committed to using our tools to get 2% inflation back. And I think if you look at, for example, if you look at the last tightening cycle, which was a two-year string of 25 basis point hikes from 2004 to 2006, inflation was a little over 3%. So inflation is much higher now and our policy rate is still more accommodative than it was then -- So it is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly. And, I also think there's something in the idea of front-end loading, whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. So that does add points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. Certainly, we make these decisions at the meeting and we'll make a meeting by meeting, but I would say that 50 basis points will be on the table for the main meeting.." - US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

The Transcript


Loretta Mester seems pretty focused on +50bps for May, not +75...

With expectations for a half-percentage point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's May meeting now locked in, traders on Friday piled into bets that the central bank will go even bigger in subsequent months, but one Fed policymaker pushed back, saying a more "methodical" approach was appropriate even in the face of too-high inflation.

"You don't need to go there at this point," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC, referring to possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike. Traders are now pricing in two such outsized rate hikes, at the Fed's June and July meetings.

Coming from Mester, one of the Fed's more hawkish policymakers and a supporter of using half-point hikes to get inflation on a downward trajectory more quickly, it was a notable bid to tamp down market panic on a day when U.S. stock indexes tumbled.

"Let's be on this methodical rather than overly aggressive path," Mester told CNBC in what is likely to be the last public set of comments from Fed policymaker ahead of their May meeting.

Reuters


JPMorgan fixed income team believes the bond market is near “max hawkish”...

Certainly, the delivery of 50bp hikes at coming meetings wouldn’t be especially surprising at this point, but it’s notable that even known doves Daly (SF, nv), and Evans (Chicago, nv) made the case for larger hikes and moving beyond neutral. Given these developments, markets are trying to push the Fed farther, as OIS forwards imply more than 50bp of hikes at each of the next two FOMC meetings (Exhibit 2). Taking a step back, in the absence of new information ahead of the May FOMC meeting, with the short end priced to 160bp of hikes over the next three meetings, we think it will be difficult to move market pricing aggressively more hawkish over the near term.

J.P. Morgan

Cumulative personal savings in the pandemic

The fixed income markets are now pricing in 175 basis points of Fed Funds tightening over the next three FOMC meetings...

Cumulative personal savings in the pandemic

CME Group


The forward FOMC moves could pencil out to something like this according to current market pricing...

@bespokeinvest: Based on current futures pricing, expectations are for 325 basis points of Fed tightening between March 2022 and March 2023.

Wide distribution of outcomes after historical yield curve inversions

Could this magazine cover nail the near-term top in U.S. bond yields?

After a multi-standard deviation move in interest rates, it is definitely time to be on the lookout for contrarian signals.

Wide distribution of outcomes after historical yield curve inversions

The Economist


Jared Dillian knows how to spot contrarian signs...

Commodities

Maybe this will also be the near-term top in mortgage rates. But wow, what a rip!

@charliebilello: The 30-year mortgage rate in the US rises to 5.11%, its highest level since 2010. Last year it hit an all-time low of 2.65%.
The 2% spike in mortgage rates over the last 16 weeks is the largest 16-week increase we've seen since 1980.

Best Year for Commodities

Housing sales and prices continue higher due to the difficulty in finishing a new home...

@RenMacLLC: Unprecedented supply chain pressures in housing. While housing starts and units under construction climb, housing completions are not really budging, down 4.5% in March and off 3 of the last 4 months. Plenty of housing supply to come to market as supply chains get fixed.

Best Year for Commodities

The Philly Fed's New Orders took a big hit last week which was a surprise...

@Lvieweconomics: The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing outlook new order book index continues its nosedive towards contraction using most recent April data...another recessionary warning signal?

After the Flood

Increasing COVID lockdowns in China are hitting growth outlooks, stock markets and the Chinese Yuan...

Chinese stocks suffered their worst selloff in more than two years and the yuan hit its lowest level since late 2020, as investors worried that strict policies to combat Covid-19 would add to the pressures weighing on China’s economic growth and corporate profits.

The battle with the Omicron variant of Covid-19 is adding to a series of challenges for China’s economy and markets, on top of domestic regulatory crackdowns, the war in Ukraine, and a shift toward tighter monetary policy by many central banks to tackle galloping inflation.

Residents in China’s capital, Beijing, were stocking up on essentials Monday in anticipation of a possible lockdown, as a severe lockdown in Shanghai entered its fifth week. Beijing officials began mass Covid-19 tests of people living or working in the city’s Chaoyang district.

Economists have slashed their forecasts for Chinese expansion, with the International Monetary Fund last week cutting its 2022 growth forecast for the country to 4.4% and banks downgrading their predictions. Foreign investors have pulled billions of dollars from Chinese stock and bond markets.

The Daily Shot

@lisaabramowicz1: The pace of foreign investors exiting China is accelerating. China's yuan is weakening the most since March 2020 today vs the dollar, even after its biggest weekly drop since 2015.

S&P 500

Q1 better than expected earnings should be the focus right now...

With about 100 companies in the books so far, it is encouraging to see forward estimates moving higher.

S&P 500

@EarningsScout


Credit Suisse positive on earnings results reported to date...

"At the beginning of 1Q22 reporting season, consensus expectations were for 4.3% EPS, with many investors and pundits expecting an outright contraction in profits... At the current pace, 1Q EPS growth should end at 11.9%... margins are contributing 80% of the upside"

@FerroTV


About 160 companies in the S&P 500 expected to report this week, including the mega-cap tech names: Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook and Microsoft...

S&P 500

@eWhispers


Now for some earnings call and release highlights, let's start with the airlines...

"I’ve never seen in my career, and I’ve been in this industry a long time -- such a hockey-stick increase of demand -- We finally reached the inflection point as we transition from pandemic to endemic, and demand is stronger than I've ever seen in my career, and that's even before business travel fully recovers." - United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby

"In March, we saw what's possible with surging demand brought on by reduced infection rates, relaxed restrictions, and tremendous pent-up demand for people to travel -- Domestic leisure travel continued to lead the way, far surpassing 2019 levels of traffic and revenue in the month of March. In addition, we saw strong quarter-over-quarter improvement in corporate and government travel with revenue for this segment as a percentage of 2019 increasing 27 percentage points from January to March -- As for full-year 2022 capacity, we now expect to be recovered to 92% to 94% of 2019 levels." - American Airlines (AAL) CEO Robert Isom

The Transcript


Proctor & Gamble prints organic sales growth of +10%. Nothing wrong with this mega-cap...

"We are closely monitoring consumption trends for signs of changes. So far, elasticities have been in line with or better than our expectations. Demand for our best-performing, premium-priced offerings remain strong as do our market share trends." - The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) CFO Andre Schulten

(The Transcript)

US IPO Proceeds and Activity

@Lvieweconomics


And Coca-Cola prints +18% organic revenue growth? I want some of what they are drinking...

Coca-Cola Co.’s first-quarter sales exceeded Wall Street expectations as consumers returned to much of their pre-pandemic behavior, and the soft drink giant emerged from a long period of shuttered venues.

Increased demand for the company’s beverages contributed to an 18% jump in organic revenue growth, excluding the impact of items like currency and acquisitions. That was nearly double the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The Atlanta-based maker of brands such as Sprite, Fanta, and Simply reported revenue of $10.5 billion in a statement Monday, beating the $9.84 billion average estimate...

Analysts say the company is navigating supply constraints and cost pressures better than some of its peers. Price increases helped drive the strong quarterly performance, along with recovery in the fountain business and away-from-home dining. Coca-Cola said it gained market share in nonalcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, both at home and in away-from-home settings.

Bloomberg


Mostly good reads from the Materials and Industrial names...

$SLB "the confluence of elevated commodity prices, demand-led activity growth, and energy security are resulting in one of the strongest outlooks for the energy services industry in recent times"
(@knowledge_vital)

STLD (Steel Dynamics) The automotive, construction, and industrial sectors continue to lead steel demand, but the company is starting to see a significant increase in steel demand from the energy sector. “Order entry activity continues to be robust across all of our businesses.
The Transcript


$NUE Reports Q1 $7.67 v $7.36e, Rev $10.5B v $10.1Be; Notes end use market demand remains strong for steel and steel products; Expects Q2 to be most profitable in firm's history (Nucor Corporation)
(@Trade_The_News)


"The case for copper as a commodity is strong. I've been saying this for 20 years, but it's never been better. Demand is growing globally. Globally, growth is no longer dependent solely on China. With COVID recovery, infrastructure spending, and the spread of electricity everywhere, it's generating significant growth in Europe. Business is strong in the U.S. and in Asia, outside China. The coming demand for carbon reduction and its impact on copper demand is truly extraordinary, and it's coming -- Higher copper prices in the future are likely," - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) CEO Richard Adkerson


"In the latter portion of Q1, advertisers in a wider variety of industry groups reported concerns related to the macro operating environment -- While the impact of these headwinds was felt broadly, our brand advertising business grew at a relatively slower rate of 26% year-over-year in Q1" - Snap (SNAP) CFO Derek Andersen
The Transcript


Consumers still want their pools and their perfumes...

"Most of our builder and remodel customers are reporting strong backlogs for new pools and a growing backlog of remodel projects created by builders focusing on new construction, more on new construction than remodeled during the last couple of years." - Pool (POOL) CEO Peter Arvan


“We are not even close to experiencing a luxury down-turn, we see many people that are affluent and even the middle classes want to indulge. The overall demand for luxury products and premiumized products is very high – the market is premiumizing overall,” - L'Oreal (LRLCF) CEO Nicolas Hieronimus

The Transcript


As for semiconductors, the world cannot get enough...

"...the demand that we're currently seeing comes from so many places in the industry. Technology-wise, market-wise, geography-wise, it's so widespread that we have significantly underestimated, let's say, the width of the demand. And I think that I don't think is going to go away. And it just -- it's an anecdote, but I met a very large -- the executive of a very large industrial company, a conglomerate, last week. And actually, they told me that they're buying washing machines to rip out the semiconductors to put them in industrial modules. I mean, that's happening these days. Now, you could say, that’s an anecdote. But, to be honest, it happens everywhere. It is -- like I said, it is 15, 20, 25-year old semiconductor technology that is now being used everywhere --.But currently, we see no signs of any weakening in our customer base, zero. And even if the demand weakens, there's a big gap between the demand and our capacity." - ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) CEO Peter Wennink

The Transcript


If you follow global construction or real estate markets, then you have to look at how Otis' quarterly outlook changes...

Flipped Home Transacations

Otis Investors


Speaking of high-end consumers, Etihad Airlines says the planes are packed...

Etihad Airways said a surge in premium-seat sales is being overwhelmingly led by huge pent-up demand for long-haul holidays and journeys to see friends and family following two years of coronavirus curbs.

Around 90% of business-class bookings with the Gulf carrier are coming from people making leisure trips, up from about 45% before the pandemic struck, Chief Executive Officer Tony Douglas said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Friday. He referred to the phenomenon as “revenge tourism.”...

The easing of Covid restrictions has been accompanied by sales increases of 800% in 72 hours in some markets, according to the CEO, who said that 12 of Etihad’s routes are currently operating full.

Douglas told Bloomberg on April 7 that Etihad had turned profitable in the first quarter, making it possible the Abu Dhabi-based company will post positive earnings for all of 2022, a year ahead of target. Demand is currently sufficient to absorb higher oil prices and the carrier has coped better with the pandemic than many others after a major downsizing that began in 2017.

Bloomberg


And here in the U.S., concert tickets are now as expensive as airline tickets...

Enya Ramirez shelled out $400 to see My Chemical Romance and $500 to see Bad Bunny on recent tours. The 20-year-old Dallas resident has noticed the prices for bigger artists creeping up, but that isn’t stopping her from trying to attend at least seven or eight concerts a year.

“It sucks for sure because I’ve had to miss out on other big concerts to go to these ones,” she says, adding that she budgeted and paid in installments for the Bad Bunny ticket, and will check out smaller groups this year as well. “Even though it’s expensive, I think it’s definitely worth the price.”

Fans flooding back to see their favorite artists are finding yet another commodity whose price has gone up: concert tickets. But while many companies have been pointing to inflation as they raise their prices, the concert industry is amid a yearslong effort to price tickets more aggressively, capitalizing on consumer demand and cutting down on money lost to the secondary market.

Ticket prices increased 11% in 2021 relative to 2019, and 14% in North America, according to Live Nation Entertainment Inc., the world’s largest concert promoter. And demand remains strong, the company says, with concert ticket sales up 45% through mid-February compared with 2019.

WSJ


Netflix had an epic earnings results reaction last week...

While few thought that the streaming and mailed DVD subscription company would actually lose subscribers, there was enough evidence to get everyone cautious going into this quarters release. (Hopefully you read our comments in the WRB from April 5th and avoided any long exposure to the stock.)

Netflix will embark on a number of large strategic moves to try and win back shareholders (like ending account sharing and launching a video advertising service). But these moves will not come without significant subscriber, revenue, and cost shifts. Future earnings will be volatile until they are able to get the train back on its tracks and find a way back to consistent growth. While they remain the dominant player, they will have plenty of competitors doing everything they can to push them over again. What a valuation round trip.

Netflix

Compound Advisors


Could someone please check back in with Hollywood?

@JimPethokoukis: I remember when Netflix was considered an unassailable monopoly. But then capitalism happened, as it always does.

EV Models Will Double


On the brighter side, the Mouse is beginning to look much more attractive to this Dumbo...

The Netflix problems and Florida news is creating a nice pullback in a dominant franchise name with currently packed theme parks and a top position in streaming media and library value. With Disney trading now at 19x 2023 EPS, 12x EV/EBITDA and a 4% FCF yield, I am beginning drool like the three hyenas in "The Lion King".

EV Models Will Double

The Irrelevant Investor


Another large capitalization public company goes private...

With the public markets fixated on future Fed actions and rising interest rates, ACC decided it was time to exit stage left and find a less volatile and more stable funding source for growing their company. So, they hit the button and sold to Blackstone last week.

AUSTIN, Texas & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- American Campus Communities, Inc. (NYSE: ACC) (“ACC” or the “Company”), the largest developer, owner and manager of high-quality student housing communities in the United States, today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement under which Blackstone Core+ perpetual capital vehicles, primarily comprised of Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. (“BREIT”), alongside Blackstone Property Partners (“BPP”), will acquire all outstanding shares of common stock of ACC for $65.47 per fully diluted share in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $12.8 billion, including the assumption of debt.

The purchase price represents a premium of 22 percent to the 90-calendar day volume-weighted average share price ending April 18, 2022, a premium of 30 percent over the closing stock price of February 16, 2022, the date immediately prior to the Company disclosing receipt of an indication of willingness to offer to acquire the Company, and a 14 percent premium to yesterday’s closing price.

ACC’s portfolio comprises 166 owned properties in 71 leading university markets including Arizona State University, The University of Texas at Austin, Florida State University, and the University of California – Berkeley, among many others. The majority of ACC’s properties are high-quality, purpose-built student housing assets located within walking distance of their respective university campuses, with approximately 24 percent of ACC’s communities located on campus.

American Campus Communities


It wasn't Blackstone's first time seeing this movie in the REIT space...

Blackstone has opened a new front in the private capital industry’s quest to supplant the stock market, taking aim at publicly listed real estate investment trusts that have fallen out of favour with investors as inflation and recession fears weigh on public market valuations.

The private equity group’s acquisition of listed student housing operator American Campus Communities for $13bn last week was the biggest in a string of such takeovers. It followed last year’s $6bn acquisition of Extended Stay America, a lodging chain geared towards out-of-town workers and others who spend long spells away from home.

“Right now people are nervous about rising interest rates,” said Jonathan Litt, chief investment officer of Land & Buildings, an activist fund focused on real estate investments, explaining why some public real estate investment trusts, or Reits, were trading at steep discounts.

“I think we’ve seen this movie before,” he added. “We know real estate does really well in a rising rate environment. But the Reits have gone down. When companies are trading in the public market at discounts to their fair value, we’re going to see those companies go private.”

Financial Times


And while you were prepping the yard over the weekend, Blackstone did it again and removed another public company from the universe of REITs...

PS Business Parks Inc. PDB, shares jumped 11% in premarket trades on Monday after it agreed to be acquired by Blackstone Inc.'s real estate unit in a deal valued at $7.6 billion. Blackstone will pay $187.50 a share, a premium of 15% over the PB Business Parks volume weighted average share price over the last 60 days. Blackstone is buying PSB's 27 million square foot portfolio of industrial, business park, traditional office, and multifamily properties mostly in California, Miami, Texas and Virginia.

MarketWatch


Speaking of private markets, if the smartest people in the room are going to start paying themselves from that asset class, then it tells you a lot about where future returns might be headed...

Unique among banks, Goldman is a big player in private investing. The firm has $426 billion of its own money and that of clients invested in corporate buyouts, loans, real estate and stakes in other investment funds. It is in the middle of another big fundraising push.

In the past, the profits from those investments -- known in the industry as carried interest -- were split evenly between Goldman and the executives actually managing the funds, a common enough setup that ensures everyone has some skin in the game.

Going forward those executives will receive just 35%, the people said. Ten percent will be shared with Goldman's roughly 400 partners, part of a push to restore the prestige of a title that once guaranteed stratospheric wealth but has dimmed. Five percent will go into a pool for Mr. Solomon and his closest deputies, the people said -- fewer than a dozen people.

WSJ


The best image that I saw all weekend was the cleaned-up street in Bucha that we all so vividly remember from early April...

@KyivIndependent: Apr 24
The central Vokzalna Street in Bucha is seen right after the town was liberated from the Russian forces (left), and today (right).
Photo: @IAPonomarenko / The Kyiv Independent.

Spring 2022

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DISCLOSURES

The author has current equity ownership in: The Coca-Cola Company and ASML Holdings.

The information presented here is for informational purposes only, and this document is not to be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities. Some investments are not suitable for all investors, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. The hyperlinks included in this message provide direct access to other Internet resources, including Web sites. While we believe this information to be from reliable sources, Hamilton Lane is not responsible for the accuracy or content of information contained in these sites. Although we make every effort to ensure these links are accurate, up to date and relevant, we cannot take responsibility for pages maintained by external providers. The views expressed by these external providers on their own Web pages or on external sites they link to are not necessarily those of Hamilton Lane.

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